Check if your jobs are safe or not: McKinsey releases report on US job sectors

McKinsey Global Institute released a report called ‘Generative AI and the Future of Work in America’ on July 26, 2023, which revealed the job sectors that will dwindle and others that will benefit from AI establishing and spreading its roots.

The report said, “Some 8.6 million occupational shifts took place from 2019 through 2022. Now even more change is in store. We expect an additional 12 million occupational shifts by 2030. The total number of transitions through 2030 could be 25 per cent higher than we projected a little over two years ago.”

The report notified that 36% of US workers are in resilient and growing jobs like health professionals, aides, technicians and wellness, STEM professionals, transportation and warehousing, managers, and business and legal professionals. The healthcare demand increases as the population ages. The push toward digitization and technology will catalyse job creation by creating demand for last-mile delivery.

 25% of US workers are in stalled but rising occupations like creatives and arts management, property maintenance, education and workforce training, builders, community services, and agriculture. Their growth trajectory is driven by investments in infrastructure and net-zero transition. However, employers will demand workers who can reskill and adapt to lifelong learning. There will be 2.8 jobs created between 2022 and 2030 in these sectors.

The job sectors that will take a hit and decline from there will be office support, customer service, sales, production work, food services, etc. 6 million jobs will be lost from 2022 to 2030 hence witnessing 10 million people undergo job transitions. This sector will adopt automation, sustained e-commerce trend, and reduced need for customer-facing roles.

In the next few years, the pandemic-era labour shortages seem to be here to stay. “Without higher participation rates, increased immigration, or meaningful productivity growth, labour shortages could be a lasting issue as the economy and the population grow. This remains an open question confronting markets, economists, and employers.” “Hiring people with potential and training them on the job can be an answer to labour shortages—and give opportunities to people who need them.”

The report further elucidates, “Multiple forces are set to fuel growth in certain occupations and erode jobs in others. They generally fall into three categories: automation, including generative AI; an injection of federal investment into infrastructure and the net-zero transitions; and long-term structural trends such as ageing, continuing investment in technology, and the growth of e-commerce and remote work. We do not forecast how aggregated employment may be affected by the business cycle in the short term; instead, we focus on how these forces may reshape the composition of labour demand over the long term.”

“By 2030, activities that account for up to 30 per cent of hours currently worked across the US economy could be automated—a trend accelerated by generative AI.”

The disparity of job losses will also be apparent between high-wage jobs that will stay secure as opposed to lower-wage service jobs. The report suggests that workers in lower-wage jobs, which are often held by women, are up to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than those in highest-wage positions. Moreover, most will require additional skills to successfully transition into new roles.

The key causes of this threat to jobs are automation and generative AI. “Generative AI can be used to write code, design products, create marketing content and strategies, streamline operations, analyze legal documents, provide customer service via chatbots, and even accelerate scientific discovery. It can be used on its own or with “humans in the loop.” Moreover, federal investment is skyrocketing in AI-driven products.

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