Lancet study warns of potential fivefold increase in yearly heat-related deaths

Climate change poses a severe threat to global health, with projections indicating a 370% increase in yearly heat-related deaths by mid-century if temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. This alarming statistic comes from the 8th annual report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, a comprehensive analysis led by researchers at University College London. The report, compiled by 114 experts from 52 research institutions and UN agencies, emphasizes the urgent need for action to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C to avert catastrophic consequences for billions of people worldwide.

The health implications of a 2°C temperature rise are dire, as highlighted by Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown. She notes that the current pace and scale of mitigation efforts are insufficient to safeguard people’s health and safety. With 1,337 tonnes of carbon dioxide still emitted every second, the report underscores the inadequacy of current emission reduction measures to keep climate hazards within manageable levels for health systems.

The report outlines 47 indicators, including new metrics for monitoring household air pollution, fossil fuel financing, and international engagement on health co-benefits of climate mitigation. Published ahead of the 28th UN Conference of the Parties (COP), the analysis aims to inform discussions and policy decisions to address the critical intersection of health and climate change.

Despite the alarming projections, the report suggests that there is still hope if decisive action is taken during COP28. Romanello expresses optimism that an equitable and rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, accelerated mitigation efforts, and support for health-focused adaptation can help achieve the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement and limit global heating to 1.5°C.

The analysis reveals the immediate impact of climate change, even at the current 10-year global average of 1.14°C of heating. In the period of 2018-2022, people experienced an average of 86 days of health-threatening high temperatures, with over 60% of these occurrences attributed to man-made climate change. Heat-related deaths in individuals aged over 65 increased by 85% from 2013-2022 compared to 1991-2000, surpassing expectations.

The report also highlights the influence of climate change on food security, with more frequent heatwaves and droughts leading to 127 million more people experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity in 2021 compared to the annual average between 1981 and 2010. The changing climate accelerates the spread of infectious diseases, with warmer seas expanding the habitat for Vibrio bacteria by 329km annually since 1982, putting 1.4 billion people at risk.

As climate change intensifies, healthcare systems are on the frontline, facing increased pressure and strain. Even the current 1.14°C of heating is causing 27% of surveyed cities to express concerns over their health systems being overwhelmed by the impacts of climate change. The report emphasizes the critical role of healthcare in protecting communities from the escalating health harms caused by climate change.

Economic losses due to extreme weather events have reached an estimated $264 billion in 2022, a 23% increase from 2010-2014. Heat exposure led to a staggering 490 billion potential labor hours lost globally in 2022, a nearly 42% increase from 1991-2000. Low- and middle-income countries are disproportionately affected, with income losses accounting for a substantial proportion of GDP. These losses not only harm livelihoods but also restrict the capacity to cope and recover from the impacts of climate change.

The report emphasizes the urgent need for global cooperation, especially considering the disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities. Georgiana Gordon-Strachan, director of the Lancet Countdown Regional Centre for Small Island Developing States, highlights the crisis faced by people in poorer countries, who bear the brunt of health impacts while having limited access to funding and technical capacity for adaptation.

Despite the severity of the situation, there is a plea for international commitment and action. The report stresses the responsibility of wealthy nations to fulfill their longstanding pledge to provide $100 billion annually to help vulnerable countries cope with climate change. The failure to deliver on this commitment jeopardizes a fair and equitable transition to a healthier and more sustainable future.

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