Whole population of Japan could share same surname by 2531, study reveals

A recent study indicates that by the year 2531, all Japanese citizens could share the same surname, “Sato”, unless the law changes to allow married couples to maintain separate surnames. This prediction is part of a broader campaign to modernize a civil code established in the late 19th century.

The research, conducted by Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University, suggests that if the current practice of couples adopting a single surname continues, the entire Japanese population could be known as “Sato-san” by the year 2531. Yoshida acknowledges that his projections are based on several assumptions, but his goal is to use these figures to highlight the potential societal impacts of the current system.

Yoshida warns of a future where everyone is addressed as “Sato”, leading to a reliance on first names or numbers for differentiation. He believes this would not be an ideal world to live in. As of a 2023 survey, “Sato” is already the most common surname in Japan, representing 1.5% of the population, with “Suzuki” following closely behind.

Despite some initial confusion on social media, with some users mistaking the study for an April Fool’s Day joke, Yoshida hopes his work will provoke serious thought. He argues that a nation of “Satos” would not only be inconvenient but would also erode individual dignity and result in the loss of family and regional heritage.

Yoshida’s calculations show that the proportion of Japanese people named Sato increased 1.0083 times from 2022 to 2023. If this rate remains constant and the surname law remains unchanged, he predicts that around half of the Japanese population will bear the name “Sato” by 2446, increasing to 100% by 2531.

The Current Surname Law

Under current Japanese law, couples must choose a shared surname upon marriage. In 95% of cases, it is the woman who changes her surname. However, this could change if the government yields to increasing pressure to allow married couples to use separate surnames.

Yoshida’s study also presents an alternative scenario based on a 2022 survey by the Japanese Trade Union Confederation. In this survey, 39.3% of 1,000 employees aged 20 to 59 expressed a desire to share a surname even if they had the option to use separate ones. If this preference holds, Yoshida projects that by 2531, only 7.96% of the Japanese population would be named Sato.

Groups advocating for a change in the law governing married surnames hope that the prospect of common surnames like “Suzuki”, “Watanabe”, and even “Yoshida” disappearing will bolster their campaign. While the government currently allows maiden names to be used alongside married names on official documents such as passports, driving licenses, and residence certificates, Japan is the only country in the world that requires spouses to use the same surname.

However, conservative members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party argue that changing the law would undermine family unity and potentially confuse children.

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