How will the 2024 Lok Sabha elections play out? Explore the general mood of the nation

A Times Now-Matrize opinion poll conducted recently projected that BJP-led NDA would win 366 seats, while INC-led bloc would bag 104 seats, and other parties securing 73 seats.

On Monday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a speech in the Parliament in which he predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win over 400 seats in the upcoming general elections, with the BJP alone securing 370 seats. He based his prediction on his assessment of the mood of the nation. Responding to the debate in Lok Sabha on the Motion of Thanks on the President’s Address, he said that the third term of the government was not far away, with only 100-125 days remaining until the Lok Sabha elections. He also exclaimed “Abki baar” and was joined by BJP members in unison, chanting “400 paar”.

A Times Now-Matrize opinion poll conducted recently projected that if the elections were held now, the BJP-led NDA would win 366 seats, while the Indian National Congress (INC)-led bloc would bag only 104 seats, with other parties securing 73 seats. The NDA is expected to receive 41.8% of the votes, while the INC-led bloc is predicted to get 28.6% of the votes, with the remaining parties predicted to secure 29.6% of the votes.

2024 Lok Sabha election
Image: Financial Express

In the 2019 elections, the BJP-led NDA won with a total of 353 seats. The BJP alone received 37.76% of the votes, which contributed to the NDA’s combined vote share of 45% out of the 603.7 million votes cast. The Congress, despite its longstanding presence, clinched only 52 seats, falling short of the requisite 10% threshold to stake a claim for the Leader of the Opposition post. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) won 91 seats, while the remaining 98 seats were distributed among various other parties.

The survey conducted by Times Now-Matrize highlights a bleak picture for the Congress across five pivotal states- Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Jharkhand-along with the National Capital Territory of Delhi, where projections suggest a complete absence of seats for the grand old party. The survey results indicate that the BJP-led NDA is likely to continue its dominance in the upcoming general elections.

State-Wise Analysis

As the 2024 Lok Sabha elections approach, predictions for the number of seats each political party will win across various states have started to pour in. Here’s a detailed state-wise breakdown:

Uttar Pradesh

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, BJP+ is predicted to win a significant 77 seats, while I.N.D.I.A is expected to secure 3 seats. BSP and other parties do not seem to have a hold in this election cycle.


In Uttarakhand, BJP is predicted to make a clean sweep, winning all 5 seats.

Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, BJP is expected to dominate with 28 seats, leaving only 1 seat for Congress.

Himachal Pradesh

In Himachal Pradesh, BJP is predicted to win 3 seats, with Congress securing 1 seat.


In the national capital, BJP is expected to win all 7 seats, leaving no room for AAP and Congress.


In Punjab, a more diverse result is predicted with AAP winning 5 seats, BJP and Congress each securing 3 seats, and SAD winning 1 seat.


In Haryana, BJP is predicted to win 9 seats, with Congress securing 1 seat.


In Rajasthan, BJP is expected to win all 25 seats.


In Gujarat, BJP is predicted to win all 26 seats, leaving no room for Congress and AAP+.


In Chhattisgarh, BJP is expected to win all 11 seats.


In Bihar, NDA is predicted to win 35 seats, with I.N.D.I.A securing 5 seats.


In Jharkhand, NDA is expected to win 13 seats, with I.N.D.I.A securing 1 seat.

Andhra Pradesh

In Andhra Pradesh, YSRCP is predicted to win 19 seats, with TDP-Jana Sena securing 6 seats.


In Odisha, BJP is predicted to win 11 seats, with BJD securing 9 seats.

These predictions indicate a strong performance by BJP and its allies across most states. However, it is important to remember that these are just predictions and the actual results may vary. The final outcome will be decided by the voters on the day of the election.

You might also be interested in –Strategist Prashant Kishor predicts a clean sweep for NDA in upcoming Lok Sabha elections

Dr. Shubhangi Jha

Avid reader, infrequent writer, evolving

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