First post-monsoon cyclone of 2023 brewing over Arabian Sea
The cyclone, if formed and intensified, will trigger above-normal rainfall across Kerala.
As the regions near the Arabian sea saw a deficit of the southwest rainfall, the states are preparing for the first post-monsoon cyclone of 2023 which is brewing over the Arabian Sea. Though reports say that the majority the global weather models indicate the further intensification of the system, Kerala is likely to be spared by the tropical storm. However, if the cyclone is formed and intensified, it will trigger above-normal rainfall across Kerala.
The relatively higher sea surface temperature (SST) prevailing on the western side of the Indian Ocean, characterised as Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (+1.850C) favours the formation of cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea region. A senior scientist of the India Meteorological department (IMD) said that it was too early to predict the strength of the system and its path. Though the cyclone which is to be named ‘Tej’ is formed, its path is expected towards Oman or the Yemen coast, it can, however, take a recurve and head for the Gujarat or Pakistan coastline.
It is also being said that along with the cyclogenesis over the Arabian Sea, another system may be formed over the Bay of Bengal over the end of the week. According to the extended forecast issued by the IMD, the system is likely to move westwards towards the North Tamil Nadu and the Andhra Pradesh coasts with low probability of further intensification into a depression over southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal.
If the system gains strength then the onset of the Northeast monsoon which brings rain to parts of Kerala may be delayed slightly as westerlies from the west may cross over to the Bay of Bengal. Whereas, the current atmospheric conditions are favourable for the onset of the Northeast monsoon by October 23-25. Meanwhile, under the current atmospheric conditions the southwest monsoon is on retreat mode and the country is expected to complete the withdrawal within two days and both these systems will trigger above-normal rainfall in the state till this month end, said the IMD.
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