Northern India, including the Delhi-NCR region, experienced a significant shake-up due (Earthquakes) to a 5.6 magnitude earthquake recently. This earthshaking event was the second of its kind in less than 72 hours and the third within the span of a month.
A Series of Shakes
Notably, this quake was preceded by another on the 4th of November in Nepal, resulting in the saddening loss of 128 lives. With a magnitude of 5.8, this event, among a flurry of others, has sparked renewed conversations around the potential for a large-scale Himalayan earthquake.
Scientists have been persistently voicing concerns about the possibility of a massive earthquake in the Himalayan region, with the potential of surpassing even a magnitude of 8.5.
The Warning Signs!
A research study conducted by Indian seismologists in 2018 hinted at this probability, suggesting the central Himalayas, an area extending from Uttarakhand to Western Nepal, could be hit by a significant seismic event “anytime in the future”.
Interestingly, this warning isn’t without cause. There have been historical instances of such devastating earthquakes in the region. The Nepal quake in 2015 caused an estimated 9,000 fatalities and was an 8.1 on the Richter scale, whereas the Gujarat earthquake in 2001 resulted in over 13,000 deaths and was recorded as a 7.7.
Accumulated Stress
Research data and geological maps from both local – the Geological Survey of India, and international – Google Earth, Isro’s satellite imagery, reveal evidence of a massive earthquake in the central Himalayas between the 14th and 15th centuries. This event was estimated to be between 8.5 and 9 on the Richter scale and resulted in a 600 km stretch of land splitting open.
The central Himalayas have experienced frequent low-intensity quakes but none of the major consequences for several centuries. This relative calm, as per seismic experts, indicates a build-up of tectonic strain, pointing towards an overdue major earthquake.
It’s noteworthy that the October earthquake in Nepal took even experts by surprise, despite routine alerts about increasing pressure under the Himalayas – a zone known for its tectonic vibrancy due to its location along the Eurasian and Indian Plate border.
India’s Preparedness for Potential Earthquakes Calamities
In 2017, responding to this looming seismic threat, a collective of scientists held a two-day workshop in Dehradun. Their aim was to encourage the Uttarakhand government towards equipping the state’s infrastructure to withstand potential earthquakes. Moreover, a 2016 study by the University of Colorado Boulder’s Department of Geological Sciences warned that the Central Himalayas still harbored pent-up strain – a harmful legacy of the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The stress accumulation, built over centuries, is anticipated to trigger a massive earthquake that could cause shocking devastation and potential loss of life.
Although it’s a challenge to precisely predict an earthquake, a detailed analysis of the tectonic movements and the pressure released under the surface is ongoing. The aim is to provide accurate and timely warnings to enable mitigation strategies and reduce potential damage.
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