According to recent research published in The Lancet journal, India’s fertility rate has seen a significant decrease, from approximately 6.2 in 1950 to just below 2 in 2021. Projections indicate a further decline to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
This trend aligns with global patterns, where the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. Predictions suggest a further decrease to 1.8 and 1.6 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
The study revealed that there were 12.9 crore live births worldwide in 2021, an increase from approximately 9.3 crore in 1950, but a decrease from the peak of 14.2 crore in 2016.
In India, the number of live births exceeded 1.6 crore in 1950 and 2.2 crore in 2021, with projections indicating a decrease to 1.3 crore in 2050.
Despite the global struggle with low fertility rates, many low-income countries are expected to grapple with high fertility issues throughout the 21st century, according to the researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators.
High fertility rates in these low-income regions, especially in certain countries and territories in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa, will lead to a world divided demographically.
The majority of children will be born in some of the world’s poorest regions, with the share of global live births in low-income countries projected to almost double from 18 per cent to 35 per cent from 2021 to 2100.
Furthermore, as climate change worsens, many of these high-fertility, low-income countries are likely to face more frequent floods, droughts, and extreme heat, threatening food, water, and resource security, and significantly increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and death.
As the global population ages, the latest findings on fertility will have significant impacts on economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment, with a “clear demographic divide” between the effects experienced by middle-to-high-income versus low-income regions.
Unless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funds to address the challenges of an ageing population, this demographic shift will increasingly stress national health insurance, social security programmes, and healthcare infrastructure.
Decrease in global population can lead to better environment
While a sustained decline in world population may present opportunities for environmental progress by reducing strain on resources and carbon emissions, increasing per capita consumption due to economic development could offset these benefits.
To limit the concentration of live births in these high-fertility, low-income regions, the researchers suggested improving women’s access to education and contraceptives, identified as the two main drivers of fertility.
Even as fertility is declining globally, the researchers projected “considerably steeper fertility declines in the next several decades” in sub-Saharan Africa through rapid scale-up of education and contraceptives access.
The GBD study, coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington (UW), US, is the most extensive and comprehensive effort to quantify health loss across places and over time.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India (PFI), a non-profit organisation advocating for gender-sensitive population and health policymaking, stated that the findings have “profound implications” for India, including challenges such as an aging population, labour force shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences.
“While these challenges are still a few decades away for India, we need to start acting now with a comprehensive approach for the future,” Ms Muttreja said.
“Economic policies stimulating growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates,” added Ms Muttreja.
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