US intelligence report: border deployment risk between India-China might lead to armed war
Despite the absence of significant cross-border clashes since 2020, the presence of large military deployments and occasional encounters between the opposing forces could potentially escalate into an armed conflict
US intelligence agencies have issued a warning about the possibility of an armed conflict between India-China. This is due to the large-scale troop deployments by both nations and intermittent military encounters. The ongoing border dispute is expected to continue to strain relations between the two countries.
The report also reveals China’s intentions to set up military bases overseas, including in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. This move is seen as an effort by China to exert its power and safeguard its foreign interests.
The disputed India-China border continues to be a source of tension in their bilateral relationship. Despite the absence of significant cross-border clashes since 2020, the presence of large military deployments and occasional encounters between the opposing forces could potentially escalate into an armed conflict.
The report underscores the fragile state of the global order, highlighting China’s plans for military expansion, its aggressive cyber activities, and potential attempts to influence the 2024 US presidential elections. It also discusses other global conflicts, including the Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war.
In related news, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently inaugurated the strategic Sela tunnel in Arunachal Pradesh. This tunnel, located at an altitude of 13,000 feet, will provide year-round connectivity to Tawang.
Infrastructure development near the India-China border has accelerated since the military standoff in the Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in May 2020. Both nations have deployed approximately 50,000 troops each in the Ladakh sector. India has asserted that normal bilateral relations can only be restored once peace and tranquility are established in the border areas.
Report also indicates the possibility of armed conflict between India and Pakistan.
The report also suggests the possibility of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan, should Islamabad provoke such a situation.
Despite a fragile peace following the renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in early 2021, neither New Delhi nor Islamabad have used this period to strengthen their bilateral ties. Instead, both governments have focused on pressing domestic issues, including election preparations and campaigning. For Pakistan, concerns over increasing militant attacks in the west have been a priority.
The report further states that Pakistan’s history of supporting anti-India militant groups, coupled with India’s readiness under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership to respond militarily to perceived or actual provocations from Pakistan, increases the risk of escalation during a crisis.
Regarding China’s plans to establish overseas bases, the report indicates that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will continue to seek the establishment of overseas military installations and access agreements to project power and protect China’s foreign interests.
China is reportedly considering the establishment of military facilities in various locations, including Burma, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Tanzania, and the UAE, in addition to its existing military base in Djibouti and military facility at Ream Naval base in Cambodia.
The report concludes by noting that Beijing aims to build a fully modernized national defense and military force by 2035, with the PLA becoming a world-class military by 2049. In the interim, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hopes to use the PLA to secure its claimed sovereign territory, assert its dominance in regional affairs, and project power globally, particularly by being able to deter and counter any US intervention in a cross-Strait conflict.
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