Monsoon is going to be good/normal this year in India
This year Skymet has predicted a good monsoon season. India struggled with monsoon since 2012, Maharashtra was one of the worse hit states. Last time 3 consecutive normal monsoon years were from 1996 to 1998.
expected normal/good with 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA). It is estimated that the LPA for June to September rainfall is estimated to 880.6 mm, meaning that if the forecast comes true, the actual rainfall in the country is expected to be around 907 millimetres.
There is only a 15% chance of draught in the selected regions, which is a really good sign for farmers and forests. Indian forests were engulfed by fire throughout the summer. Starting from the Orrisa Fire to the recent Uttarakhand forest fire. It was a bad year for the Indian forests. The new rain will regenerate the forests, helping it preserve the biosphere.
“In the June to September months, normal rainfall is expected to be in East and Central India, while North and North-West India might have some chances of below normal rainfall,” Skymet said.
It said that ‘neutral’ El Nino conditions will prevail during the June to September months, while Indian Ocean Dipole will also remain neutral. The heartening fact is that there is no chance of El Nino impacting Indian monsoon in any way this year,” the agency said.
Month-wise monsoon in June across the country will be 106 per cent of LPA, which will be 177 millimeters of rainfall, while the monsoon in July will be 97 per cent of LPA, which will be 277 millimeters of rainfall. Monsoon in August is expected to be 99 per cent of LPA which will be 256 millimeters of rainfall across the country and monsoon in September is expected to the best at 116 per cent of LPA.
In 2020, the southwest monsoon was more than normal in almost all parts of the country except in North-West India which comprises of major grain producing states such as UP, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, the National Capital of Delhi, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir.
Out of the 685 districts in the country, the monsoon was normal in almost 75 per cent of them, while it was deficient and below normal in the remaining in 2020.
Buoyed by the good rains, the kharif foodgrains harvest in 2020-21 was estimated to be over 144 million tonnes which was an all-time high harvest.
