India now more likely to respond to Pakistan’s provocations, tensions may escalate to full-scale war: US National Intelligence Report
The Global Trends Report said that India-Pakistan tensions could escalate to war especially following a terrorist attack by Pakistan since India under PM Modi was more likely to retaliate with military force against provocations by Pakistan.
India-Pakistan tensions may escalate into a full-fledged war that “neither side wants”, especially following a terrorist attack that the Indian Government judges to be significant, warned the United States National Intelligence Council’s report on threats around the world while exploring the possibilities of war in South-Asia.
While making the statement it noted that India under PM Modi was more likely than the past to respond with military force to Pakistani provocations. “Heightened tensions raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,” it said.
The risk of an escalatory scale in the cross-border tensions also comes in context of both India and Pakistan being without high-commissioners in each other’s capitals after the BJP government abrogated Jammu Kashmir’s Special Status with Article 370 and bifurcated the state into two Union Territories in August 2019.
The report noted that such a full-scale war could translate into long-term economic fallout and inflict damage that could have economic and political consequences for years.
It also mentioned the Afghanistan factor, saying that emergence of a security vacuum in the country leading to a civil war between Taliban and its Afghan opponents could fuel political tensions and conflict in western Pakistan, sharpening the India-Pakistan crisis.
However, India has since maintained that it only desires peaceful unneighborly relations with Pakistan in an environment free of terror and violence, bringing the onus on Islamabad following numerous terror attacks stemming from the country in the past.
Apart from this, the report also highlighted India’s conflict with China, saying, “Interstate conflicts will also flare, ranging from border sparrings, such as that between China and India, to potentially more sustained violent confrontations.”
The Global Trends Report is compiled once every 4 years and focusses on both the immediate and distant future aiming to help policymakers anticipate the forces likely to shape the world in the coming years.
